Venezuela holds roughly 20% of the world’s proven oil reserves—by far the largest globally and nearly seven times those of the United States. Yet years of sanctions and severe infrastructure decay have reduced its production to about 700,000 barrels per day, far below its estimated 3 million‑barrel capacity. While a U.S.-led regime change could eventually unlock new supply, any impact on global oil markets, inflation, or the broader economy will take time. Early market reaction reflects this: crude prices are essentially unchanged, though energy equities are showing strength on expectations of renewed investment.
According to economist Tracy Shucart, oil is not the primary strategic driver behind the intervention. Instead, she argues that the move aligns with rising U.S. concerns over critical minerals, where China dominates global processing and rare‑earth refining. Venezuela’s Orinoco Mining Arc contains valuable deposits of coltan, rare earths, bauxite, tin, and lithium—resources that could help diversify U.S. supply chains.
Shucart also highlights the presence of Iranian and Russian military and intelligence assets in Venezuela, including IRGC operatives, a reported Iranian drone facility, and a Russian task force. Venezuela is one of the few locations where China, Russia, and Iran operate simultaneously, creating what she describes as a “contested electromagnetic spectrum” near U.S. borders.
If sanctions are eased, major integrated oil companies—particularly Chevron, which already has a footprint in the country—stand to benefit first. Oilfield service providers such as Schlumberger and Halliburton could see increased demand as infrastructure investment ramps up, while Gulf Coast refiners may gain from renewed access to Venezuelan heavy crude.
In sum, the intervention appears aimed at securing critical mineral supply chains and reducing hostile foreign military influence in the Western Hemisphere, with energy‑sector opportunities emerging as a secondary but meaningful outcome.